Trump Won, Study Says
A study from The Heartland Institute finds that self-reported illegal ballots tipped the 2020 election.
Did Joe Biden get illegal help in winning the 2020 election over Donald Trump? A new study by my colleagues at The Heartland Institute says he did, and that those who gave him that help admit to it.
The report is based on the results of a Heartland Institute/Rasmussen poll that found voters acknowledged submitting enormous numbers of illegal ballots in the 2020 elections. The current study summarizes those finding as follows:
28.2 percent of respondents who voted by mail admitted to committing at least one kind of voter fraud. This means that more than one-in-four ballots cast by mail in 2020 were likely cast fraudulently, and thus should not have been counted.
The analysis notes that the election was distorted by a torrent of “fraudulent mail-in ballots” resulting from “abrupt and hasty changes to voting procedures in the months before the 2020 election [which] occurred despite the fact that ample evidence showed that mass mail-in voting, unsecure ballot drop boxes, ballot harvesting, and lack of signature verification would result in a flood of fraudulent ballots that would undermine the accuracy of the election results.”
These “questionable policies were typically implemented through regulatory fiat by state officials, such as secretaries of state, despite the fact that the U.S. Constitution explicitly declares that state legislatures are the only state institutions that can make or change election laws,” the study notes.
The voters did not necessarily know that the practices they were using were illegal. The real culprits are state officials and courts that refused to apply state law as duly enacted by the legislatures, as is required under the Constitution.
We have no reason to believe that our survey overstated voter fraud by more than 25 percentage points, and thus, we must conclude that the best available evidence suggests that mail-in ballot fraud significantly impacted the 2020 presidential election, in favor of Joe Biden.
The Heartland study dives deeper into the polling data to conduct a rough analysis of how those invalid votes would have affected the outcome of the election:
Because Joe Biden received significantly more mail-in votes than Donald Trump, we conclude that the 2020 election outcome would have been different in the key swing states that Donald Trump lost by razor thin margins in 2020—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin— under the 28.2 percent [fraud] scenario. We also analyzed the electoral results for those six swing states under every integer from 27 percent fraud down to 1 percent fraud, allowing readers to see the impact that fraudulent mail-in ballots might have produced under each scenario.
Their conclusion:
[I]f the voter fraud captured by our 2023 Heartland Institute/Rasmussen survey was indicative of what occurred in the 2020 presidential election, there is a high likelihood that had mail-in ballot fraud been severely limited, Donald Trump would have won the election. In fact, as our study shows, of the 29 different scenarios presented in this paper, Trump wins in all but three (when mail-in ballot fraud is limited to 1–3 percent of the ballots counted). That means that even if the level of fraud shown by our survey (28.2 percent of all mail-in ballots) substantially overstates the true level of fraud that occurred, Trump would still have won in most of the likely scenarios, with only three exceptions, as noted above. We have no reason to believe that our survey overstated voter fraud by more than 25 percentage points, and thus, we must conclude that the best available evidence suggests that mail-in ballot fraud significantly impacted the 2020 presidential election, in favor of Joe Biden.
The paper is clear in its methodology and reasoning, and its conclusions are compelling:
The authors of the study delve into a variety of scenarios with different illegal-ballot rate calculations and varying assumptions “to maximize transparency.” Nearly all show Trump winning the election, with the rare Biden-victory assumptions proving highly unlikely.
This study is highly important and should guide states’ voting procedures if the public and lawmakers want to increase the reliability and credibility of our elections. Read it here.