Philly Reserve Bank Debunks Biden Administration’s Economic Numbers
I've stated regularly that the books were being cooked. Now even a Fed bank is acknowledging the truth.
As loyal readers of my Life, Liberty, Property newsletter know, I have been reporting regularly on the dubious nature of the Biden administration’s reported economic numbers since issue one, way back in December of 2022. In an excellent article in Fox News, my Heartland Institute colleague Justin Haskins reports on new evidence that the Biden administration has either been cooking the books over the past four years or has consistently been making entirely innocent mistakes that all just happened to make the economy look better than it has been:
A new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia shows that the Biden-Harris administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) overestimated employment in 25 states across the country in the second quarter of 2024. By contrast, the report found that initial employment numbers from BLS were too high in only two states. (The second quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has updated data.)
Those Biden administration miscalculations (or fabrications) magically turned employment declines into job increases:
According to the Philadelphia Fed, its updated, expanded data reveals second quarter [2024] state payroll employment declined by 0.1 percent, suggesting a net jobs loss during that period compared to one year prior.
The preliminary employment data provided by the White House had indicated earlier this year that there had been an increase in states’ employment numbers during the same period. According to the Biden-Harris administration’s original numbers, the sum of states’ employment figures showed a national increase in employment of 1.8%. The national survey data showed an increase of 1.1%.
The Biden team got the states’ unemployment figures wrong on the upside by almost two full percentage points—as many as 3 million jobs, Haskins notes. That is a huge gap—at best an enormous error and at worst a whopping lie.
Haskins suggests that the reports were deliberately falsified:
Although it is incredibly difficult to prove, it’s reasonable to suspect that the White House might have rigged the employment surveys to make it appear as though the economy was in better shape.
The biggest reason to believe that the White House could have deliberately deceived Americans is that previous employment figures are rarely revised to the extent that the second quarter 2024 numbers will end up being adjusted, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s other reports.
Interestingly, the data for 2023 turned out to be very accurate, with the preliminary state employment data differing from the final, adjusted numbers by only a tenth of a percentage point. The Biden team was able to get the numbers right sometimes.
The employment data for 2022 and 2024 were much less accurate, Haskins notes—and they painted a much rosier picture of the economy than what the public was experiencing.
What was it about 2022 and 2024 that accompanied the government’s inaccurate employment reports? “I am sure it’s only a coincidence that 2022 was yet another important election year,” Haskins writes.